The older you get you realise everything is cyclical – and that’s the same for organic search traffic. Understanding this cyclical or seasonal nature of search traffic is important in helping a business plan strategically.
MoM vs YoY
It’s important to point out that seasonality can affect all types of traffic. But as organic search is initiated by the actions of real people i.e. typing or speaking a query into a search engine, (and not just a ‘reaction’ to a message or promotion pushed out on social media), seasonality is an important factor to consider. If your target audience is distracted, there will simply be fewer searches.
Search traffic always ebbs and flows and monitoring search traffic on a month-by-month (MoM) basis alone is therefore not ideal. It’s easy to get caught up in what looks like a good or bad month compared to the previous one, without seeing the bigger picture.
Even in an industry or sector where there is year-round demand for a product or service, external factors will still influence how many people reach your site via organic search.
Christmas, Easter, and summer holidays can all have an impact on search traffic, sometimes in a positive way, sometimes not – depending on what products and services you offer.
For example, many solicitors will see a drop in traffic during the latter half of December as people are less concerned about sorting out their legal matters and more focused on parties and presents. However, the first working Monday in January often provides firms with a welcome boost as disputing couples file for divorce. Therefore, in this case, a January to December comparison will always look favourable for the former but, in reality, the January increase is simply down to seasonality and not necessarily an overall improvement in organic search.
Similarly, MoM traffic can also be impacted by when public holidays fall as this can impact how much time people take as an actual holiday and away from their usual routines.
For example, suppose the New Year falls on a Wednesday. Many people may look to maximise their holiday allowance and take time off through to Monday 6 January, which could create a bigger deficit in search traffic in some industries in January compared to December. However, products such as DIY tools and building materials, may see an increase in search volumes when the population has more time on its hands to undertake home improvements.
What is good for one industry may have the opposite effect on another.
If you’re responsible for reporting on organic search volumes, you’d need nerves of steel to base it on MoM traffic alone.
Year-on-year (YoY) data
Comparing YoY data will give you a better indication of whether you are improving traffic volumes (and other metrics such as conversions) compared to the same month, the year before.
Therefore if you always get an increase in traffic around Valentine’s Day or say in September, by comparing YoY traffic, you’ll be able to see if the current year’s traffic is an improvement on the previous year – a much better indication of success.
By its very nature, this YoY comparison compares the same calendar month and therefore the same number of days. Whereas, a favourable MoM comparison between February and March may simply be due to the latter having 3 more days’ worth of traffic than the previous month – not exactly a like-for-like comparison!
Other moveable feasts
Over and above traditional holidays and highdays, organic search can also be highly influenced by local, national and world events such as elections, inflation, football and even the weather. These can occur at any time during the year and therefore cause spikes or dips in search traffic. Comparing YoY traffic will not help you account for this.
Unfortunately, in all its wisdom, Google has not transferred the ‘annotation’ feature over from UA to GA4. (@Google – if you’re reading this please, please reinstate it.) It allowed you to make a note of anything unusual or any site changes that could or did have an impact on traffic. If you don’t already have a spreadsheet, I’d suggest you create one to keep note of any factors that you’ll likely have forgotten about in 12 months.
However, there is another way of confirming these unusual trends which may help you understand YoY differentials too.
Understanding trends – Google Trends
If you’ve launched a brand new company, new domain, or even with the introduction of GA4, you may have no way of going back to see previous annual trends. This is when Google Trends is your friend.
Below is a Google Trends search for ‘sunglasses’ and as you’d expect, there is a peak in the summer season each year.
The scale can be somewhat confusing but every Google Trends graph will reach a value of 100 within your selected timeframe. This simply means it was the point of peak popularity for that search within that time. A value of 50 means the term is half as popular as the date/time when the value was 100. A value of 25 is 25% as popular as the peak etc.
Just to make the point, a similar search over the same period but in Australia, reverses this seasonality for fairly obvious reasons.
By using Google Trends you know you are looking at an even bigger picture of overall seasonality than you could get just from your own site.
This long-term picture of seasonality can be really useful in understanding what is happening in an industry or sector overall. If, for example, your 2024 organic traffic is down on 2023, it could set alarm bells ringing but in fact, it might just be reflective of fewer searches overall due to poor weather or perhaps the cost of living.
Long lead times
Search volumes only reflect when people start researching a particular product or service. In the case of sunglasses, this is a fairly immediate purchase. You generally know if you need a pair (or if you’re going to treat yourself!) and after a few hours/days’ research in most cases, you’re probably waiting for Evri to arrive. Therefore, all things being even, conversions/sales will closely match searches.
However, if you’re selling a high ticket item, something that is a more considered purchase, or something bespoke, such as kitchens, boats, conservatories etc. the seasonality in search may not be reflected in web conversions and sales. These may be delayed by the more consultatory nature of the purchase.
Timing for future campaigns
Search traffic is ‘always on’ and therefore while you should always be aiming to increase traffic amongst your target audience, you can’t suddenly press the boost button when you need more leads. Increasing search volumes is a long-term effort that should see your efforts rewarded in a measured increase over time.
Seasonality, however, is something that affects most businesses but in some industries, it can have a more dramatic effect. For example, if you’re selling bespoke traditional timber windows, you may know that search volumes increase in Spring. You may also know that perhaps 6 months down the line, your factory will be busy manufacturing the resulting orders.
If however, there are quieter times in the workshop, and you want to ensure your staff are busy all year round, you might want to take steps to increase leads in what is normally your off-season. So perhaps a carefully timed emailed campaign or increased social media activity, may help to offset a seasonal dip in searches and maintain year-round factory productivity.
Seasonality summed up
Understanding seasonality in search is a beautiful thing. It can help you determine whether your marketing activity is truly influencing your search traffic and whether you can make any changes to benefit from or counteract these seasonal trends.
