The older you get you realise everything is cyclical – and that’s the same for organic search traffic. Understanding this cyclical or seasonal nature of search traffic is important in helping a business plan strategically.
MoM vs YoY
It’s important to point out that seasonality can affect all types of traffic. But as organic search is initiated by the actions of real people i.e. typing or speaking a query into a search engine, (and not just a ‘reaction’ to a message or promotion pushed out on social media), seasonality is an important factor to consider. If your target audience is distracted, there will simply be fewer searches.
Search traffic always ebbs and flows and monitoring search traffic on a month-by-month (MoM) basis alone is therefore not ideal. It’s easy to get caught up in what looks like a good or bad month compared to the previous one, without seeing the bigger picture.
Even in an industry or sector where there is year-round demand for a product or service, external factors will still influence how many people reach your site via organic search.
Christmas, Easter, and summer holidays can all have an impact on search traffic, sometimes in a positive way, sometimes not – depending on what products and services you offer.
For example, many solicitors will see a drop in traffic during the latter half of December as people are less concerned about sorting out their legal matters and more focused on parties and presents. However, the first working Monday in January often provides firms with a welcome boost as disputing couples file for divorce. Therefore, in this case, a January to December comparison will always look favourable for the former but, in reality, the January increase is simply down to seasonality and not necessarily an overall improvement in organic search.
Similarly, MoM traffic can also be impacted by when public holidays fall as this can impact how much time people take as an actual holiday and away from their usual routines.
For example, suppose the New Year falls on a Wednesday. Many people may look to maximise their holiday allowance and take time off through to Monday 6 January, which could create a bigger deficit in search traffic in some industries in January compared to December. However, products such as DIY tools and building materials, may see an increase in search volumes when the population has more time on its hands to undertake home improvements.
What is good for one industry may have the opposite effect on another.
If you’re responsible for reporting on organic search volumes, you’d need nerves of steel to base it on MoM traffic alone.
Year-on-year (YoY) data
Comparing YoY data will give you a better indication of whether you are improving traffic volumes (and other metrics such as conversions) compared to the same month, the year before.
Therefore if you always get an increase in traffic around Valentine’s Day or say in September, by comparing YoY traffic, you’ll be able to see if the current year’s traffic is an improvement on the previous year – a much better indication of success.
By its very nature, this YoY comparison compares the same calendar month and therefore the same number of days. Whereas, a favourable MoM comparison between February and March may simply be due to the latter having 3 more days’ worth of traffic than the previous month – not exactly a like-for-like comparison!
Other moveable feasts
Over and above traditional holidays and highdays, organic search can also be highly influenced by local, national and world events such as elections, inflation, football and even the weather. These can occur at any time during the year and therefore cause spikes or dips in search traffic. Comparing YoY traffic will not help you account for this.
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